Fentanyl: The opioid behind Trump’s tariff threats

Illicit Fentanyl recovered from traffickers.
| Photo Credit: AFP

In what was seen as the beginning of a trade war, American President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% additional tariff on Chinese imports on February 2. Besides other goals, these tariffs were meant to force action against drug trafficking from China, Canada and Mexico into the U.S. Specifically, Fentanyl trafficking.

Accordingly, Mr. Trump paused the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for thirty days after they agreed on a plan to tackle drug smuggling across the borders, but Chinese tariffs still came into force on Tuesday (February 4, 2025).

So, what is Fentanyl?

It is a powerful opioid drug that induces euphoria and relaxation along with pain relief effects, 50 times more potent than heroin and 100 times stronger than morphine. Just 2 grams of Fentanyl – an amount held on a pencil tip – can become lethal, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Intelligence says.

Fentanyl’s impact in the U.S.

Drug overdose from consuming synthetic opioids (including Fentanyl) peaked at over 79,000 deaths in July 2023 for the 12-month period preceding that time. The number has fallen since then. Between August 2023 and 2024, over 57,000 people have died due to overdosing.

However, these numbers differ from Mr. Trump’s claims of 2,50,000 to 3,00,000 people dying every year of drug overdose. — significantly higher than what the U.S. Centre for Disease Control and National Vital Statistics System has recorded. While the government agency has cautioned that these numbers are not exact counts, it has said that the extent of error is 500 deaths more or less the number

While Mr. Trump might have exaggerated the issue, the problem is still severe. In 2022, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency said that it captured 50.6 million fake fentanyl-laced pills, along with powdered Fentanyl equivalent to more than “379 million potentially deadly doses.” It said that this was more than enough to kill all Americans.

Since 2003, the rate of deaths from drug overdose has increased, peaking at around 32.6 in 2022. It decreased marginally to 31.3 in 2023. More males have died from drug overdose than females since 2003, in an age-standardised calculation.

Fentanyl supply chain

China, Canada and Mexico have played different roles in manufacturing, processing and packaging Fentanyl into easily consumable forms that eventually end up in the U.S., along with raw materials exiting the U.S. that are eventually smuggled back into the country as processed Fentanyl.

A sophisticated cross-border network of drug cartels, shippers, transporters, shell companies, money launderers and tunnel builders building cross-border tunnels for smuggling make the whole operation run.

The overall process is this. Precursors – or the chemicals needed to manufacture the Fentanyl drug – are smuggled to cartels that process it into the Fentanyl powder. This powder is then pressed into fake prescription pills and other forms, which are then smuggled again to end consumers.

China is largely said to supply the precursors to Mexican cartels, which then ship processed Fentanyl into the U.S. along with other legitimate goods. The fact that Fentanyl also has legal uses as a clinically prescribed pharmaceutical makes it harder to prosecute illicit suppliers.

Fentanyl pills look so much like legitimate ones like Oxycondon that they are almost identical.

Besides providing precursor chemicals to Mexico, Chinese companies also help launder the sale proceeds back to Mexico through illegal money laundering companies, according to the 2024 National Drug Threat Assessment report published by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency. However, China has said that the problem of Fentanyl was America’s.

The Fentanyl that enters the U.S.

Most of the Fentanyl seized by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection are from the southwest border, adjoining Mexico. Less than 1% of Fentanyl comes from the northern border, adjoining Canada.

This is also reflected in the higher number of Mexican cartels along States bordering Mexico, according to the 2024 National Drug Threat Assessment report published by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency.