Donald Trump: A blow to the global fight against climate change, but also an opportunity — the sentiment wasn’t altogether sombre among climate experts in India as US President Donald Trump began his second tenure in office by withdrawing the country from the Paris Agreement while promising to double down on oil and gas production.
Donald Trump, a vocal climate change sceptic, takes office at a critical time. The year 2024 was the hottest on record, and the first to see the rise in temperature surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius. A temperature rise past this point, over the long term, is considered a point of no return, and avoiding it is the primary goal of the Paris Agreement, which completes a decade this year.
Trump sent many worrying signals on Monday as he reversed several climate-related measures. Apart from the Paris Agreement withdrawal, he declared an ‘Energy Emergency’, which experts say could give his administration increased powers to approve production of both fossil fuels and even critical green minerals, essential to the energy transition.
The US is already the largest oil and gas producer globally, and reached new oil production highs under the Biden administration. Oil companies are saying they are drilling as much as they can already.
Trump also rolled back incentives for electric vehicles.
He has a conducive legislative environment to look forward to: The Republicans now control both chambers of Congress, albeit with slim majorities, and there is a conservative majority in the Supreme Court as well.
‘Global South Leadership’
R.R. Rashmi, a Distinguished Fellow at TERI, said the “impact of the new US administration is likely to be felt not so much in the area of private investments in renewable and clean energy space as on global resource flows for financing clean energy transition”. “The forces of competitive trade actions in the name of climate may get reinforced,” she added.
Aarti Khosla, Director at Climate Trends, said the “policy reversals in the US highlight the risks of inconsistent climate commitments in this critical decade”.
“While these actions undermine global progress, they place greater responsibility on countries like India to step up and lead by example by not limiting the aspirations of clean energy goals which we have rightly embarked on,” she added. “2024 is the hottest the world has ever been in over 100,000 years, and the impacts of this crisis need multilateral action.”
In the “leadership vacuum left by the US”, Khosla said, other “countries, business leaders and subnational actors will seize the chance to continue our shift to a clean energy economy and not lose the progress on climate solutions”.
“In 2022, the world lost $1.4 trillion worth of GDP to climate change, of which India lost 8% of its GDP. Our upcoming Union Budget is an opportunity for India to prioritise our climate policies and ensure that we are ahead of the curve and not slowing down. This is India’s opportunity to show the Global South leadership by ramping up climate action.”
Dr Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, Council on Energy, Environment and Water, said Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement once again was not entirely unexpected.
“It, however, creates two kinds of uncertainty: Will state-level and corporate action in the US double down on investments and innovation in clean tech? And how will other large historical emitters step up to fill the emissions reduction gap? All large historical emitters have a moral and economic obligation to lead, not retreat, on climate action,” Ghosh added.
India, he said, “must remain steadfast in its commitment to climate action — to capitalise on the strategic opportunities in technology, investment, industrial development, green livelihoods, and greater resilience for the economy.”
“Climate risks are now macroeconomic risks — and climate policy is now industrial policy. Meaningful collaboration opportunities still exist on adaptation, resilience and insurance against climate shocks on one hand, and development and diversification of clean tech development, manufacturing and supply chains, on the other.”
‘Chaos & Undertainty’
Avantika Goswami, Programme Manager, Climate Change, Centre for Science and Environment, said Trump “returns to US political leadership at a time when climate impacts are escalating and the global green economy is becoming increasingly fragmented and adversarial”.
“The chaos and uncertainty of his actions will hurt US decarbonisation as well as the obligations of the US to the rest of the world on climate cooperation. Other nations must take the lead and ensure that global climate action doesn’t slow down in this critical decade,” she added,
Manjeev Puri, Distinguished Fellow, TERI, described the US’ Paris pact withdrawal as a “blow to global cooperation on climate change”. “It’s the largest economy in the world, and its actions and commitments to tackling climate change are critical,” he said.
However, he added that “innovation and market forces will drive progress, even amidst policy shifts in the US”.
“The country is a great hub for innovation, and a supportive government incentivises and nurtures it. While the private players will do what they have to do, they will have to work harder in the given circumstances. The bigger risk is the exploitation of sensitive regions like Alaska, which poses grave ramifications to global climate stability. Europe stepped up in 2016, but today, it has economic challenges of its own, so while it will not withdraw its commitments, it might not be able to plug the gap of the US’ absence.”
