The strikes hit air defences, missile systems, and facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear programme, as well as killing several top commanders and scientists. Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir said the operation could not be delayed. “We cannot afford to wait for another time to operate, we have no other choice,” he said. “Recent and past events of history have taught us that when the enemy is attempting to destroy us, we must not turn a blind eye.”
Israel-Iran War: A decades-long confrontation
Netanyahu’s confrontation with Iran has spanned his political life. Since the mid-2000s, he has made Tehran’s nuclear programme a centrepiece of Israeli national security policy. “For the past two decades Iran was the number one thing for Netanyahu,” said Aviv Bushinsky, his former chief of staff. “This is the most significant thing he has done.”
Friday’s strikes mark the transformation of Israel’s covert campaign against Iran into a direct military conflict. In recent years, Israeli forces have targeted Iranian-linked groups across the region — degrading Hezbollah in Lebanon, undermining Syria’s Assad regime, and launching punishing strikes on Hamas in Gaza following the 7 October 2023 attack. But analysts say this week’s attack on Iran itself crosses a threshold.
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Was Iran really on the brink of making a nuclear bomb?
Israeli officials claim the timing of the attack was based on intelligence that Iran was near weapons capability. The IAEA‘s latest 22-page report, however, paints a more ambiguous picture. While it highlights Iran’s growing stockpile of enriched uranium and lack of cooperation with inspectors, it offers no evidence of an active nuclear weapons programme.US intelligence assessments, too, remain cautious. “Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons,” Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the Senate in March. But she added that Iran was not currently “actively pursuing a nuclear weapon.”Iran’s stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium, now at 408.6kg, could be sufficient for nine bombs depending on the design — though it falls short of the 90% enrichment needed for a weapon. The IAEA called this a “serious concern” but noted Iran’s claims that enrichment serves only peaceful purposes.
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Undermining diplomacy?
The timing of the strike — just days before US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman — raised questions about Israel’s intentions. Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations said, “It is clear their timing and large-scale nature was intended to completely derail talks.”
Netanyahu has long opposed negotiations. He labelled the 2015 Iran nuclear deal “a historic mistake” and welcomed Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from it. Since then, Iran’s nuclear activity has accelerated, and diplomatic talks have faltered.
While Trump initially cautioned against military escalation, he later posted on Truth Social calling for a deal, saying: “There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter… come to an end.”
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US role and risks ahead
Despite Trump’s public hesitations, officials say the US president had been kept informed of Israel’s plans. A source told reporters: “The US was in the know all along.”
Eyal Zamir, Israel’s military chief of staff, said the operation could not be delayed. “We cannot afford to wait for another time to operate, we have no other choice,” he said. “Recent and past events of history have taught us that when the enemy is attempting to destroy us, we must not turn a blind eye.”
But the military and political risks are high. Iran still has a substantial missile arsenal and has threatened to retaliate not just against Israel but also against US forces in the region. There are also fears that Hezbollah, though weakened, may now be pressured to launch attacks, alongside Iran-backed militants in Yemen and Iraq.
Israel-Iran: A region on edge
The strike may have received tacit US approval. A source familiar with the situation said, “The US was in the know all along.” Analysts believe Netanyahu was emboldened by past military gains and Washington’s relative silence.
But the operation carries major risks. Iran retains a large arsenal of ballistic missiles and has vowed to retaliate — not only against Israel but also against US interests in the region. Although Israeli and allied forces intercepted missile barrages last year, officials now warn of a more powerful Iranian response.
There are fears that Hezbollah could re-engage, along with Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Yemen. “If the exchanges escalated into a protracted conflict with heavy casualties, public opinion could shift,” said Nadav Shtrauchler, a political consultant and former adviser to Netanyahu.
Inside Israel, the immediate response has been one of unity. Opposition leaders Yair Lapid and Yair Golan supported the strikes, despite having recently tried to unseat Netanyahu’s government.
But longer-term questions remain. Without direct US military involvement, can Israel’s strike permanently halt Iran’s programme? Or will it merely delay it?
Even Netanyahu’s critics acknowledge the operation may reshape his legacy. Since the shock of 7 October, Netanyahu has faced intense criticism. He has since dubbed the conflict a “war of redemption,” seeking to reclaim authority lost during Israel’s intelligence and defence lapses.
“I don’t know if this will be a game-changer strategically,” Bushinsky said. “Maybe the Iranians will claim their programme was barely hit… But for the way Netanyahu will be remembered, I think it is a game-changer.”
“It won’t erase his responsibility for the [failures] on October 7. But it will remove some of the stains.”
(With inputs from AFP)
