Whenever it’s time to engage in direct dialogue with India, Pakistan is often seen seeking backing from its allies or hiding behind a veil of threats. Lacking the moral right to negotiate one-on-one, it frequently leans on countries like Turkey or China. Once again, Islamabad has resorted to the same tactic, issuing veiled threats in the name of China after facing a setback in Operation Sindoor and growing fears over India’s control of Indus River waters.
Rana Ehsan Afzal, advisor to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, recently warned that if India blocks Indus waters, China could retaliate by doing the same with the Brahmaputra River. He added that such a scenario could spark a global war. Responding firmly, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma countered the claim on Tuesday (June 3, 2025), backing his statement with data and exposing the factual limitations of China’s control over Brahmaputra’s water flow. Notably, China has made no such declaration.
Can China Really Block Brahmaputra’s Flow to India?
According to experts, China cannot completely stop the Brahmaputra’s flow into India, as only 20%-30% of the river’s total water volume originates in China, while a significant 86% is generated within Indian territory.
How Much of Brahmaputra’s Flow Comes from China?
An article published on natstrat.org, co-authored by former Indus Water Commissioner PK Saxena and former Brahmaputra-Barak Commissioner, explains the distribution of water flow in the Brahmaputra River Basin. It reveals that only 20%-30% of the river’s flow comes from China’s Tibetan region.
Northeast India Powers Brahmaputra
The article clarifies that while the river begins in Tibet and receives some contribution from light rainfall and 4-12 inches of snowfall, India’s northeastern states contribute the most. Interestingly, Bhutan, though small in size, contributes 21% of the water, nearly equal to China, even though only 6.7% of the river flows through its territory.
India accounts for 34.2% of the river’s geographical area, but contributes a dominant 39% of its water, which rises to 86% during the monsoon. The article highlights that the river’s flow is just 14% before it enters India. It swells to 86% once it traverses the rainfall-rich Northeast.
Himanta Biswa Sarma’s Strong Rebuttal
Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma took to social media platform X to explain that the Brahmaputra is not a river India depends on externally — it is a rain-fed Indian river that strengthens significantly after entering Indian territory.
Sarma stated, “China contributes only 30-35% to the Brahmaputra’s total discharge, mainly from glacial melt and limited Tibetan rainfall. The remaining 65%-70% comes from heavy monsoon rains in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, and Meghalaya.”
What If China Stops Brahmaputra Water to India?
A Response to Pakistan’s New Scare NarrativeAfter India decisively moved away from the outdated Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan is now spinning another manufactured threat:
“What if China stops the Brahmaputra’s water to India?”…
— Himanta Biswa Sarma (@himantabiswa) June 2, 2025
He further pointed out that while the river’s flow near the India-China border (Tuting) is around 2,000-3,000 cubic metres per second, it surges to 15,000-20,000 cubic metres per second in Assam’s plains during the monsoon. This means that the river is highly dependent on Indian rainfall rather than Chinese sources.
China’s ‘Water Bomb’ On Brahmaputra
Although China withholding Brahmaputra’s waters may not have a huge impact, but the potential of what is known as a ‘water bomb’ remains. The ‘water bomb’ refers to China’s ambitious 60,000-megawatt hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo — upstream of the Brahmaputra River in Tibet.
Arunachal Pradesh MP Tapir Gao raised a red flag in April, calling the proposed megastructure not a dam, but a potential “water bomb” that could pose grave threats to India and other downstream nations.
China began working on the ‘water bomb’ since the 1950s when it annexed Tibet. It has built several dams in Tibet since then, with the Yarlung Tsangpo being the most ambitious project yet.
Gao even cited the devastating June 2000 flash floods as a chilling precedent. “That flood, triggered by a sudden release of water from upstream, swept away more than ten bridges on the Siang River in central Arunachal. This proposed project at the Great Bend could lead to similar, or even worse, disasters,” he was quoted as saying by The Hindu.
The Great Bend is the region in China where the Yarlung Tsangpo sharply turns south into India’s Arunachal Pradesh and becomes the ‘Siang’. The Siang later merges with the Dibang and Lohit rivers in Assam to form the Brahmaputra, a river vital to millions of lives and livelihoods in India’s northeast.
Gao, who represents Arunachal East in Parliament as a Bharatiya Janata Party MP, stressed the urgent need for India to construct its own dam on the Siang to counter the ‘water bomb’. “This isn’t just about infrastructure; it’s about safeguarding downstream communities from the potential havoc of an unannounced water release from upstream China,” he said.
