Between 2014 and 2023, each infant and adult in India aged above 65 was exposed to an average of 7.7 and 8.4 heatwave days per year respectively, an increase of 47% and 58% compared to 1990-1999, according to a paper documenting the impact of the climate crisis on people’s lives, health, and well-being, published in The Lancet on Wednesday.
New global findings in the eighth annual indicator report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change reveal that people in every country face record-breaking threats to health and survival from the rapidly changing climate, with 10 of 15 indicators tracking health threats reaching concerning new records.
In 2023, people were exposed to, on an average, an unprecedented 50 more days of health-threatening temperatures than expected without the climate crisis. Extreme drought affected 48% of the global land area — the second-highest level recorded — and the higher frequency of heatwaves and droughts was associated with 151 million more people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity than annually between 1981 and 2010.
The paper also found that each year, from 2014 and 2023, an average of 42.7% of India’s land area underwent at least one month of extreme drought, nearly double of the quantum from 1950 to 1960. During the same period, around 25% of India’s land faced drought for three months or more annually, almost seven times greater than 1950-1960. Droughts can impact crop yields and livestock, increasing the risk of food insecurity and malnutrition. They can also affect water security, impair sanitation, and increase the risk of infectious disease transmission.
The suitability for transmission of many infectious diseases, including vector-borne, food-borne, and water-borne diseases, is also influenced by shifts in temperature and precipitation associated with the climate crisis. In India, the transmission potential (R0) for dengue transmitted by Aedes albopictus mosquitoes increased by 85% from 1951-1960 to 2014-2023; with an average R0 above one at 1.6 for 2014-2023, according to the paper.
As multiple health threats from the climate crisis break dangerous new records, the report calls for the trillions of dollars spent funding fossil fuels to be redirected and used to drive a rapid and fair transition to a net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) economy, instead of harming the health of billions of people across the world.
“This year’s stocktake of the imminent health threats of climate inaction reveals the most concerning findings yet in our eight years of monitoring,” said Marina Romanello, executive director, Lancet Countdown at University College London, in a statement. “Once again, last year broke climate change records—with extreme heat waves, deadly weather events, and devastating wildfires affecting people around the world. No individual or economy on the planet is immune from the health threats of climate change. The relentless expansion of fossil fuels and record-breaking greenhouse gas emissions compounds these dangerous health impacts, and is threatening to reverse the limited progress made so far, and put a healthy future further out of reach.”
She added: “Despite this threat, we see financial resources continue to be invested in the very things that undermine our health. Repurposing the trillions of dollars being invested in, or subsidising, the fossil fuel industry every year would provide the opportunity to deliver a fair, equitable transition to clean energy and energy efficiency, and a healthier future, ultimately benefiting the global economy.”
The report, funded by Wellcome and developed in close collaboration with the World Health Organization, represents the work of 122 leading experts from 57 academic institutions and UN agencies globally, including the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The year 2023 was the hottest on record, with persistent droughts, deadly heat waves, and devastating forest fires, storms and floods, and disastrous impacts on the health, lives and livelihoods of people worldwide.
Heat-related deaths continue to rapidly increase, and are expected to exceed cold-related deaths in a high-warming scenario, said the reserachers. Globally in 2023, heat-related deaths in those over age 65 increased by a record-breaking 167% above deaths in the 1990s, substantially above the 65% increase that would have been expected had temperatures not changed (i.e., accounting only for changing demographics). This compounds existing inequities, with the number of health-threatening heat days added by the climate crisis higher in countries with a low human development index (a measure of education, income, and life expectancy).
Worldwide in 2023, people were also exposed to, on average, an all-time high of 1,512 hours of high temperatures posing at least a moderate risk of heat stress while undertaking light outdoor exercise such as walking or cycling—a 27.7% increase (328 hours) on the 1990-1999 yearly average. Increasing temperatures have also led to a record 512 billion potential hours of labour lost globally in 2023 (a 49% increase above the 1990-1999 average), with global potential income losses equivalent to US$835 billion—equivalent to a substantial proportion of GDP in low- (7.6%) and middle-income countries (4.4%). In 2023, India saw individuals exposed to a moderate or higher risk of heat stress for an average 2,400 hours per year, or the equivalent of 100 days per year, during light outdoor activities (like walking).
Added to this, new data from this year’s report estimates that almost 182 million hectares of forest were destroyed between 2016 (when the Paris Agreement entered into force) and 2022, equivalent to 5% of the global tree cover, diminishing the world’s natural capacity to capture carbon dioxide.
“People in all parts of the world are increasingly suffering from the financial and health effects of climate change, and disadvantaged communities in resource-limited nations are often the worst affected, yet provided with the least financial and technological protections,” said Wenjia Cai, Lancet Countdown Working Group 4 Co-Chair at Tsinghua University.
“Adaptation is failing to keep pace with the rapidly growing health threats of climate change, and with limits to adaptation looming, and universal health coverage still a pipe dream for more than half the world’s population, financial support is urgently needed to strengthen health systems to better protect people.”
