Barely four days after the United Nations warned that the world is headed for a 3.1-degree-Celsius warming over pre-industrial levels, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has flagged record greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2023, which has put the planet on course for rising temperatures for decades to come.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than ever experienced during human existence, rising by more than 10% in just two decades, the WMO said. In 2023, large forest fires-led CO2 emissions and a possible reduction in carbon absorption by forests combined with extremely high fossil fuel CO2 emissions from human and industrial activities to drive the increase, according to the WMO’s annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin released on Monday.
Given the extremely long life of CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature level already observed will persist for several decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero, the WMO has warned, indicating that it may be difficult for countries to collectively meet the Paris Agreement’s goals to limit global warming to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
“Another year. Another record. This should set alarm bells ringing among decision makers. We are clearly off track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement.
The global average of surface concentration of CO2 reached 420.0 parts per million (ppm), methane 1 934 parts per billion and nitrous oxide 336.9 parts per billion (ppb) in 2023. These values are 151%, 265% and 125% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels, respectively. These are calculated on the basis of long-term observations within the Global Atmosphere Watch network of monitoring stations, as per WMO.
The 2023 increase of CO2 in the atmosphere was higher than that of 2022, although lower than that of the three years before that. From 1990 to 2023, radiative forcing – the warming effect on our climate – by long-lived greenhouse gases increased by 51.5%, with CO2 accounting for about 81% of this increase, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Annual Greenhouse Gas Index cited in the WMO bulletin.
The report, which indicates that there is hardly any time to counter the devastating impacts of climate change, was released weeks ahead of the UN Climate Conference (COP29) in Baku, to be held from November 11 to November 22.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) also released its NDC Synthesis report on Monday ahead of COP29, which revealed that current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) combined would see global emissions in 2030 at a level only 2.6 % lower than what was seen in 2019.
This falls way short of the 43% reduction by 2030 that is required to avert the worst impacts of climate change, on the way to net-zero emissions by 2050, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). With countries currently working on new NDCs due next year, this year’s report shows only marginal progress from last year, and only a fraction of what is needed to meet Paris goals.
“Today’s NDC Synthesis Report must be a turning point, ending the era of inadequacy and sparking a new age of acceleration, with much bolder new national climate plans from every country due next year. The report’s findings are stark but not surprising – current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country,” UNFCCC’s executive secretary Simon Stiell said in a statement.
COP29 is a vital moment in the world’s climate fight, and today’s data is a blunt reminder of why COP29 must stand and deliver. Governments must come to Baku ready to convert the pledges in the UAE Consensus at COP28 – tripling renewables, the global goal on adaptation, transitioning away from all fossil fuels – into real-world, real-economy results, protecting people and their livelihoods everywhere, he added.
