With the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP29, fast approaching, the world’s attention is firmly set on the urgent need for unified action against the climate crisis. With Donald Trump reclaiming the White House in 2024, the United States (US)’ approach to climate policy may face another major shift, one that could impact not only American environmental efforts but global climate progress.
Donald Trump announced on June 1, 2017, that the US would withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. Due to the agreement’s formal exit process, this withdrawal was finalised on November 4, 2020—the day after the 2020 presidential election—making the US the first nation to officially exit the global accord. This move marked a significant shift in the country’s climate policy and its stance on international cooperation in addressing climate issues.
Trump’s return to office signals a likely reprisal of his administration’s policies, which previously saw the US pull out of the Paris Agreement, relax federal environmental regulations, and amplify fossil fuel production. His America First energy strategy took precedence, a direction that now threatens to resurface. As the world braces for COP29, the international community will be watching closely to see how Trump’s policies unfold and how they might influence global climate crisis dynamics.
Under Trump’s administration, we can expect a rollback in federal climate initiatives. His previous term prioritised deregulation and energy dominance, largely focusing on fossil fuel resources. Should he continue this trajectory, we might see diminished emissions standards for industries that have a major impact on climate, including energy, transportation, and manufacturing. Reduced federal action would, in turn, weaken the US’s influence in climate discussions on the global stage, signalling a shift from climate leadership to a stance of energy independence.
For the US, which historically has been one of the largest contributors to global carbon emissions, federal withdrawal from active climate measures would send a discouraging signal to the international community. Other countries may question the US’s commitment to climate goals, potentially prompting delays or reductions in their own climate pledges. After all, the global fight against the climate crisis relies on coordinated action, and a retreat by the world’s largest economy could weaken the collective resolve.
In Trump’s previous administration, fossil fuels—specifically oil, gas, and coal—took centre-stage. A renewed emphasis on fossil fuels will likely mean an increase in oil and gas production, with additional public lands opened for drilling. Under such policies, we may see fewer incentives for clean energy development, fewer regulatory controls on greenhouse gas emissions, and continued support for traditional energy industries. This focus on fossil fuels would be at odds with global targets for reducing carbon emissions and achieving a net-zero future.
For the US, the implications are severe, as fossil fuels are one of the most significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Further investment in fossil fuels will not only hinder emissions reduction goals but could also lock in carbon-intensive infrastructure for decades to come, delaying the clean energy transition. Globally, Trump’s stance may slow progress in renewable energy markets, especially in emerging economies that look to the US as a model for industrial policy.
While Trump’s administration may scale back federal initiatives, state and local governments in the US have proven resilient in their commitment to green policies. We can expect environmentally progressive states like California, New York, and Washington to continue leading climate action through their own legislation and investments in renewable energy. Local governments will likely intensify their climate resilience programmes, focusing on energy efficiency and emissions reduction, even as federal support wanes.
This patchwork approach has been observed before, with states implementing measures independently of federal guidance. However, without the scale of federal funding and policy support, the reach and effectiveness of these state-level programmes may be limited. States with ambitious climate goals may face challenges in scaling their programmes, given that federal incentives and resources have historically played a significant role in supporting climate-friendly infrastructure and technology.
Even with reduced federal climate action, the private sector will likely continue its push toward green technology and sustainable practices. Investors, corporations, and consumers have demonstrated a growing commitment to sustainability. Major companies are not only striving to meet environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria but also responding to consumer demand for eco-friendly products. In recent years, the market for clean technology has continued to grow, with investments flowing into renewable energy, electric vehicles, and carbon capture technology. This trend is unlikely to reverse, even if federal policies become less supportive.
In fact, the shift away from federal regulation may encourage certain sectors within the private market to take an even more proactive stance on climate issues. Leading tech companies, for instance, have committed to ambitious sustainability goals and are advancing technologies like wind, solar, and hydrogen power. Although a change in federal priorities may slow industry-wide adoption, it’s likely that companies with sustainability-focused strategies will continue to drive the green economy forward.
Internationally, Trump’s presidency could reverberate through COP29 discussions and global climate commitments. While the US has traditionally been a key player in climate summits, Trump’s previous withdrawal from the Paris Agreement undermined multilateral climate goals, and a similar move could be anticipated. The prospect of a renewed US retreat from global climate cooperation could create hesitation among other countries, especially those balancing economic growth with climate action. For developing nations, which rely on funding and support from wealthier countries to implement green policies, a shift in US policy may complicate their path toward achieving their climate targets.
The re-election of Trump may also deepen the divide between countries taking aggressive climate action and those prioritising economic development over environmental concerns. The US, as one of the world’s largest economies, has the potential to bolster or hinder international progress. With other major polluters, such as China and India, closely monitoring the US’s climate stance, a lack of American leadership could dampen the effectiveness of future climate initiatives.
The global momentum for climate action, while resilient, faces significant challenges with Trump’s return. Nonetheless, climate remains a pressing issue, with impacts that extend across borders and political affiliations. As COP29 approaches, the world’s focus will likely shift from relying solely on political leaders to embracing a wider coalition of stakeholders—scientists, activists, businesses, and local governments—to keep climate goals within reach.
The urgency to address the climate crisis is more pressing than ever. Even if Trump’s administration takes a backseat on climate, the growing consensus within the private sector and civil society may serve as a counterbalance. The challenge now is for States, cities, companies, and communities to remain steadfast in their environmental commitments. As public awareness of climate issues grows, the demand for sustainable practices will continue to shape markets and drive technological advancements. The stakes are high, but the global resolve for a sustainable future may still withstand the political tides.
In a world where the impact of climate knows no boundaries, America’s role remains vital. As we look ahead to COP29 and beyond, the need for collective action has never been clearer. Regardless of who sits in the White House, the journey toward a climate-resilient future must continue—undeterred, determined, and united.
This article is authored by Kaviraj Singh, CEO & director, Earthood and Sumit Kaushik, research scholar, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat.
